Why Bali villa occupancy numbers differ and how we count
Last updated: October 15, 2026
Ask five sources for Bali villa occupancy and you'll get five answers, from about 20% to over 60%. Most of the gap comes from what each source counts, not from the market. Here is exactly what we count, so you can judge our numbers and compare them with anyone else's. Live figures are on the Bali market page.
Where the data comes from
Every day we read the public availability calendars of 6,700+ Bali listings on Airbnb and Booking.com (365 days ahead on Airbnb, 61 days on Booking.com) and the nightly prices shown in search results. Nobody publishes real reservation records, so every occupancy figure for Bali, ours included, is inferred from calendars.
What counts as booked
- A night is booked when we saw it open and it later closed: one day it could be reserved, the next it couldn't.
- Host blocks are not bookings. When a long stretch closes at the same moment (46 nights or more), or a date closes more than 180 days ahead, it's almost always the owner blocking the calendar, not a guest. We leave those nights out of both the booked and the available count. A month-long rental (28–33 nights) still counts as a booking, since they're common in Bali.
- The arrival day is closed by Airbnb itself, so a night that closes on its own check-in day isn't counted as sold.
- Nights we never saw open (a new listing, a booking made before we started tracking) are “unknown”. We don't guess them; they're excluded rather than counted as booked.
Sources that count every closed night as booked report much higher occupancy; sources that model bookings from review counts often report much lower.
What counts as the market
Whole villas and homes only. Hotels, resorts, guesthouses, hostels and B&Bs are left out: a hotel listing stays “available” while any room is left, so its occupancy can't be measured the same way, and its prices pull the average down. Apartments are tracked as a separate segment. Mixing all of these together is the second big reason published numbers disagree.
ADR and RevPAR
- ADR (average daily rate) is the price nights actually sold for: the last price we saw for a night before it went from open to booked. The asking price of listings still open is shown separately. It describes what's left, not what sold.
- RevPAR (revenue per available night) is ADR × occupancy.
- Prices are in US dollars, per night, before platform service fees.
Airbnb and Booking.com together
Many Bali villas are listed on both platforms. Booking.com is the bigger channel for some segments, and leaving it out skews both price and demand. A villa listed on both platforms is counted once per platform for now: we are matching the two listings of the same villa, and until that is done the figures can count it twice.
How fresh, how checked
- Calendars are read every night; prices daily. Market figures are recomputed twice a day.
- We log our own forecasts of which nights will sell and check them against what happened, every day.
- Coverage is shown next to every number: how many villas it's based on, and how many have a known status.
What we don't know
Direct bookings, other channels and owner stays are invisible to everyone working from public data. Calendars can't tell a cancellation from a host reopening dates. We show these limits instead of a cleaner-looking number.